Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail Hardcover – November 30, 2021

This is an extraordinary book. Although it’s written by an economist, it is anything but boring. The author does an outstanding job of examining multiple empires across hundreds of years. He analyzes the rise and fall of each empire by segmenting their respective histories into different cycles. He then identifies the various cycles that each empire goes through, from its initial rise to its eventually fall. Each cycle is sub divided into key indicators such as military strength, budget deficits, wealth gaps, education, etc. In the end, the author looks at the United States using this same cyclical methodology.Mr. Dalio’s arguments and analysis are sound and make good sense. His interpretation and description of various historical events, especially those pertaining to the British and Dutch empires, are right on target. Throughout the book, he is consistent in the application of his analytic model. This is noteworthy as I felt his analysis of China to be slightly flawed. The author appears to have omitted certain elements of modern-day China; most notably is the pending population time bomb caused by their previous one child policy. China’s population is now shrinking. In addition, and unlike America, the Chinese seem culturally incapable of using immigration to solve their problem. This opposing view of China, however, does not detract from the author’s overall analysis. He is consistent in his analysis and cites other data which support counter arguments.Bottom line, this book was far more interesting than I anticipated. Even though the author’s analysis is complex, the book is well written and easy to understand. The narrative is both captivating and entertaining. Overall, this is just a great book.

I’m grateful Ray Dalio has shared his world view and his access to leading thinkers and valuable sources of data, to make me more aware and better prepared for what’s coming. I am also friends with Ray, and I trust him.This book offers at least two major contributions.First, the synthesis and integration of economic, social, and geopolitical history that presents a holistic view of how countries rise and fall. Leveraging his relationships with leading thinkers and historians, Ray gives us a way to understand the major forces, cycles, and paradigm shifts that can dramatically change the world around us. You would have to read dozens of well-chosen books to gain such an understanding, and you still may not have a comprehensive theory.Second, the quantification of each major nation’s economic, cultural, and geopolitical health. With the support of Bridgewater’s multi-hundred-million-dollar research budget and team, Ray presents the key determinants of a country’s strengths and weaknesses through time, and relative to other countries. Seeing the most important long-term trends in charts provide useful perspectives that are unavailable elsewhere.Here are some of my biggest take-aways.Disorderly conflict is the pre-cursor to destructive conflict that is likely to be devastating for all of us. Both the winners and the losers of destructive actions are worse off relative to compromise, mutual understanding, and respect. As an American, I should not take for granted that I live in the most powerful country that has seen one of the longest periods of peace, economic growth, and innovation in global history. It’s not the norm, and if we aren’t careful, things could get a lot worse.Invest in innovation. Both as an investor and as a citizen, innovation has been a powerful force for improving lives and driving economic growth.We are likely in for a period of high inflation. The easiest way for the government to deal with high levels of debt is by printing money, using stimulus to spur economic growth, and keeping interest rates lower than nominal GDP growth. That is, to inflate their way out of debt. As an investor, he suggests avoiding long term holdings of cash and bonds. Instead, he recommends diversifying with assets that can do well in an inflationary environment, like highly dependable cash generating stocks, some gold (possibly a little cryptocurrency), and other scarce inflation-protected assets.This book is a major contribution. I strongly recommend reading or listening to it. If you don’t have the time, at least read the first few pages of the introduction, the first chapter “The Big Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell”, chapter 8 "The Last 500 Years in a Tiny Nutshell", and the final chapter called “The Future”. I hope you found this helpful.

It is a really good collection of Mr. Dahlio's thoughs on what will happen next. It also leads me to believe that some of Bridgewater's bets will not be paying off in the next 3-5-10 years, specifically related to China.It is a very interesting read and he does a solid job of explaining the economic history of the last thousand years. I do have 2 gripes with the narrative he creates. One is that its like Xi Jin Ping himself paid Ray to write this- he gushes over China and its people and policies for like a quarter of the book, while brushing past genocide and oppression. He just beats you over the head with it. The second and more important gripe is that he writes a 500 page book about economic change and does not once address population change as a factor driving growth (or lack thereof). Like...it's such a glaring omission that it casts doubt on the rest of the book. How, as an editor, do you not point this out to him? If you're going to read this book, follow it up with Peter Zeitan's The End of the World is Just the Beginning.If you can read the book as a supplement towards your knowledge of economic and political change (as opposed to a comprehensive guide) then its a really interesting read.